How Did Mary And Joseph Dress?

The Conspiranoia of climate change.

In these times of great campaigns of misinformation, I would like to reflect on the climate change denied.

course the climate is complex, and to make concrete predictions more than a week is absurd. But other trends that are predictable and misfits as well.

what scientists say is not going to make more heat, or colder, but the complex dynamic systems are stable local minima and if you meet the threshold of imbalance, move to a new balance different the current, and it occurs more or less abrupt.

It's like you have a ball rolling on a surface bumpy. As the ball is kept in a rut and do not have enough energy to push the edge of the hole, you have a balance. If you manage to overcome these edges, either because the qualities of more energy, or because they modify the shape of the bumpy surface, will soon scouring the surface until it is trapped in another slump and reach a balance.

The climate is like the bumpy surface, and the models predict is that we will emerge from that point of balance, and therefore can not predict is how will we end the slump. That means you can make colder or warmer, or the distribution is different, or change the Gulf Stream, or acute, etc.

The fundamental problem is that there will be a change and that change is disastrous for an economy. Rain in the Sahara, for instance, would take hundreds of years that more is less like a desert, but no one now lives in the Sahara. It stops raining so much in India would end the lives of millions of people in a few years. Raise or lower the sea level is a disaster for coastal areas. etc.

What is difficult to quantify is when you break the balance, even if the greenhouse effect will in a few years. Only have models that try to emulate the behavior of the climate. And those models are imperfect, the more erroneous the greater the period of their forecasts.

But what is happening these years is that the models are wrong by conservatives, not bold, and the changes that are occurring now are greater than those predicted.

If you're going downhill without brakes, you might end up finding the end an uphill stop you, but you may find a corner and you estampes. I prefer to put the brakes on my bike, while others prefer to say that we are in a plain, and there is no reason to brake.